For a government that has been generally pilloried for not being "radical" enough in its policy interventions, the Modi government has lately shown a strange penchant for spending an enormous amount of political capital on small impact initiatives.
The latest of them is the visit of the Pak JIT to India to investigate the Pathankot AFB terror attack. to be sure, this isnt unprecedented, there was a Pakistani Judicial Commission that visited India in 2012 to record the testimony of witnesses. But there are key differences between 2012 and 2016. For one, the composition of the Pak team - this time, it consists purely of police/intelligence officials, including a junior officer of the ISI. But more intriguingly, its the access accorded to the team that is curious. The Pak team will visit Pathankot AFB, though it has been said that they would not be allowed inside the "Technical area" (the part of the AFB that houses aircraft and missile/radar systems). Somewhat facetiously this would be the first time an ISI (and a MI) officer would "officially" set foot inside an Indian AFB.
What isnt quite clear is the purpose of the visit. All terrorists involved in the attack have been killed. The terror scene would have been cleaned up two months after the incident to afford any great forensic work. Witnesses, barring the Punjab Police SP Salwinder Singh (and his two associates) whose car was ostensibly hijacked by the terrorists, most others would be basically "victims" of the attack and personnel posted in the AFB. By definition they wont have much value to add about the Pakistan connection of the attack, which is the purported objective of the visit.
Question therefore is, what is it that the Pakistani team will do that could not have been done over electronic means in terms of data sharing? Or is it just optics to keep the pressure on Pakistan?
Whatever it is, odds are that this would have an outcome not much different from what has been seen in 26/11. JeM, while not being as strategic an asset for the Pak establishment as LeT is, is still too valuable to be given up on a platter. Not when the establishment thinks that it has substantial strategic leverage thanks to China (CPEC deal) and the upcoming US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Especially as there is no quid pro quo on the table from India, either on Kashmir or for that matter on Afghanistan.
For the Narendra Modi govt, this could end up uncannily like IC814, Jaswant Singh escorting the JeM chief Masood Azhar (and two others) to Afghanistan. It was an imagery (of a culmination of bad strategic choices, starting from Lahore bus yatra) that BJP has been hard pressed to live down. As the hardline nationalist party, the BJP has a certain amount of political leeway in making concessions on Pakistan. But optics without tangible outcomes come back to bite hard.
JeM/Masood Azhar seems to be a case of deja vu for the BJP!
The latest of them is the visit of the Pak JIT to India to investigate the Pathankot AFB terror attack. to be sure, this isnt unprecedented, there was a Pakistani Judicial Commission that visited India in 2012 to record the testimony of witnesses. But there are key differences between 2012 and 2016. For one, the composition of the Pak team - this time, it consists purely of police/intelligence officials, including a junior officer of the ISI. But more intriguingly, its the access accorded to the team that is curious. The Pak team will visit Pathankot AFB, though it has been said that they would not be allowed inside the "Technical area" (the part of the AFB that houses aircraft and missile/radar systems). Somewhat facetiously this would be the first time an ISI (and a MI) officer would "officially" set foot inside an Indian AFB.
What isnt quite clear is the purpose of the visit. All terrorists involved in the attack have been killed. The terror scene would have been cleaned up two months after the incident to afford any great forensic work. Witnesses, barring the Punjab Police SP Salwinder Singh (and his two associates) whose car was ostensibly hijacked by the terrorists, most others would be basically "victims" of the attack and personnel posted in the AFB. By definition they wont have much value to add about the Pakistan connection of the attack, which is the purported objective of the visit.
Question therefore is, what is it that the Pakistani team will do that could not have been done over electronic means in terms of data sharing? Or is it just optics to keep the pressure on Pakistan?
Whatever it is, odds are that this would have an outcome not much different from what has been seen in 26/11. JeM, while not being as strategic an asset for the Pak establishment as LeT is, is still too valuable to be given up on a platter. Not when the establishment thinks that it has substantial strategic leverage thanks to China (CPEC deal) and the upcoming US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Especially as there is no quid pro quo on the table from India, either on Kashmir or for that matter on Afghanistan.
For the Narendra Modi govt, this could end up uncannily like IC814, Jaswant Singh escorting the JeM chief Masood Azhar (and two others) to Afghanistan. It was an imagery (of a culmination of bad strategic choices, starting from Lahore bus yatra) that BJP has been hard pressed to live down. As the hardline nationalist party, the BJP has a certain amount of political leeway in making concessions on Pakistan. But optics without tangible outcomes come back to bite hard.
JeM/Masood Azhar seems to be a case of deja vu for the BJP!
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