One of the most curious developments around the Ukrainian crisis has been the Chinese response to it. The Middle Kingdom is usually quite reticent in joining issues on affairs that it is not directly involved in. But in this case, quite curiously China seemed to be quite vocal in pledging support to Russia. While it abstained in the UN Security Council resolution yesterday, a bit of a blow-back to its usual stance on such issues, the general narratives have been quite supportive of Russia.
Now, Russia and China are not natural allies. Not by a long shot. Besides having fought a border war in 1969, one of the abiding concerns of demographically declining Russia is the vulnerability of its sparsely populated Eastern frontiers to Chinese aggression.
In this case though, China and Russia are joined in being leery of "colour revolutions", ostensibly sponsored by the West. But this is more than just a regime change affair. In the case of Ukraine, the story unfolding is also of one state (Russia) encouraging a region (Crimea) of another state (Ukraine) to break off, citing largely ethnic reasons. For China the principle being established is hugely problematic, as this gives credibility to what China terms as "splitist" tendencies in Tibet and Xinjiang. Both have uncanny parallels to Crimea - regions populated by ethnic minorities (Indic Buddhists in Tibet and Uighur muslims in Xinjiang) claiming to be persecuted by the national majority and state. If Crimea has a right to break-off using a referendum, why shouldnt Tibet? Or Xinjiang?
This is where the red line emerges for China. Much as it dislikes Western sponsorship of colour revolutions, it would be suicidal to side with the Russians in this case.
There is one more, not insignificant issue. Ukraine has been a major supplier to the Chinese defence industrial complex, especially in terms of IP of critical Soviet technologies. Bulk of the aeroengines in new Chinese aircraft, for example trace their origins to Ukrainian assistance.
India has the same issue - it will be difficult to endorse Russian action in Crimea without being set up for uncomfortable questions on Kashmir. Hence, the silence of India on the affair is undertstandable.
But the vocal nature of the Chinese hasnt been, and maybe the nutcracker is creating a bit of a climbdown now. But all around Asia, there would be lessons learnt on the China's behaviour.
Now, Russia and China are not natural allies. Not by a long shot. Besides having fought a border war in 1969, one of the abiding concerns of demographically declining Russia is the vulnerability of its sparsely populated Eastern frontiers to Chinese aggression.
In this case though, China and Russia are joined in being leery of "colour revolutions", ostensibly sponsored by the West. But this is more than just a regime change affair. In the case of Ukraine, the story unfolding is also of one state (Russia) encouraging a region (Crimea) of another state (Ukraine) to break off, citing largely ethnic reasons. For China the principle being established is hugely problematic, as this gives credibility to what China terms as "splitist" tendencies in Tibet and Xinjiang. Both have uncanny parallels to Crimea - regions populated by ethnic minorities (Indic Buddhists in Tibet and Uighur muslims in Xinjiang) claiming to be persecuted by the national majority and state. If Crimea has a right to break-off using a referendum, why shouldnt Tibet? Or Xinjiang?
This is where the red line emerges for China. Much as it dislikes Western sponsorship of colour revolutions, it would be suicidal to side with the Russians in this case.
There is one more, not insignificant issue. Ukraine has been a major supplier to the Chinese defence industrial complex, especially in terms of IP of critical Soviet technologies. Bulk of the aeroengines in new Chinese aircraft, for example trace their origins to Ukrainian assistance.
India has the same issue - it will be difficult to endorse Russian action in Crimea without being set up for uncomfortable questions on Kashmir. Hence, the silence of India on the affair is undertstandable.
But the vocal nature of the Chinese hasnt been, and maybe the nutcracker is creating a bit of a climbdown now. But all around Asia, there would be lessons learnt on the China's behaviour.
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