Over the last decade, there has been a lot of chatter in the international strategic circles about the so-called Asian pivot in US foreign policy. The shape of that pivot has been imagined at various levels - the Sino-US G2 grouping, the trilaternal Indo-US-Japan or even the quadrilateral Indo-US-Aus-Japan "blocs". However, two developments have put paid to most of the assumptions. One, an increasingly inward looking US posture over the last decade - a lot of people missed the latest round of major cuts in US defence budgets. Two, the rapid rise of China as the second largest politico-military power in the world, importantly someone with no evangelical enthusiasm on its ideology (which means it poses no threat to the American homeland, or even its "near abroad".)
Consequently, rest of Asia has to fend for itself while dealing with an increasingly assertive and aggressive China. Contrary to the propaganda, China has territorial disputes pending with many of its neighbours - Japan, Vietnam, Russia and of course, India. China's enormous trade heft too automatically causes friction with large parts of mercantile Asia (ASEAN).
In this context, the only initiative of heft and context that is emerging is the Indo-Japan engagement. Interestingly, a lot of the heavy lifting in this case has come from Japan. Note the following developments:
1. Shinzo Abe, in his recent visit to India, signed a deal to sell the Japanese US2 amphibious aircraft to India. For those who missed the point, the "pacifist", post-WWII Japan has had a stated policy of not exporting any military hardware. In terms of its impact on changing internal political calculus, this is almost as big as George W Bush breaking the "non proliferation consensus" in US policy during the Indo-US nuclear deal.
2. Last year, while the rupee went on a tailspin on the back of the tapering announcement by the US Fed, the big backstop came in the form of a Japanese currency swap agreement, worth 50 billion dollars. What it meant was that India had access to 50 billion dollars of Japanese reserves in case it wanted to. This, along with a slew of other measures restored stability in the currency. Though India has had to swap a single dollar yet from this arrangement, the impact on sentiment has been decisive, partly responsible for the rupee being the best performing emerging market currency this year!
This is just a start. Obviously, the Shinzo Abe led government (Shinzo Abe's grandfather, enjoyed great relations with Jawaharlal Nehru and India in his time as PM) is investing a lot in the Indian relationship. The reason is simple, India is the only state with the requisite military and economic heft in Asia to be able to be able to be a "swing state" in any face-off with China. All other Asian states are either too small, or too weak (militarily) or too poor or indeed too beholden to China to offer meaningful support in such a vneture.
It would be up to the new government in Delhi to grasp this relationship with both hands and some more, and take it to a new level. Most of the actionables immediately of course, would be internal!
Consequently, rest of Asia has to fend for itself while dealing with an increasingly assertive and aggressive China. Contrary to the propaganda, China has territorial disputes pending with many of its neighbours - Japan, Vietnam, Russia and of course, India. China's enormous trade heft too automatically causes friction with large parts of mercantile Asia (ASEAN).
In this context, the only initiative of heft and context that is emerging is the Indo-Japan engagement. Interestingly, a lot of the heavy lifting in this case has come from Japan. Note the following developments:
1. Shinzo Abe, in his recent visit to India, signed a deal to sell the Japanese US2 amphibious aircraft to India. For those who missed the point, the "pacifist", post-WWII Japan has had a stated policy of not exporting any military hardware. In terms of its impact on changing internal political calculus, this is almost as big as George W Bush breaking the "non proliferation consensus" in US policy during the Indo-US nuclear deal.
2. Last year, while the rupee went on a tailspin on the back of the tapering announcement by the US Fed, the big backstop came in the form of a Japanese currency swap agreement, worth 50 billion dollars. What it meant was that India had access to 50 billion dollars of Japanese reserves in case it wanted to. This, along with a slew of other measures restored stability in the currency. Though India has had to swap a single dollar yet from this arrangement, the impact on sentiment has been decisive, partly responsible for the rupee being the best performing emerging market currency this year!
This is just a start. Obviously, the Shinzo Abe led government (Shinzo Abe's grandfather, enjoyed great relations with Jawaharlal Nehru and India in his time as PM) is investing a lot in the Indian relationship. The reason is simple, India is the only state with the requisite military and economic heft in Asia to be able to be able to be a "swing state" in any face-off with China. All other Asian states are either too small, or too weak (militarily) or too poor or indeed too beholden to China to offer meaningful support in such a vneture.
It would be up to the new government in Delhi to grasp this relationship with both hands and some more, and take it to a new level. Most of the actionables immediately of course, would be internal!
