Mamata's Bangladesh caper

In the long run, of the many blots on the policy record of UPAII, the one that might end of leaving the deepest scars would be Manmohan Singh's botched Bangladesh visit. What could have been the take-off of a "New Deal" in India's relationship with its near abroad has been left stranded in the runway. More depressingly, the plane awaits clearance from an ATC (aka, Mamata Bannerjee) whose sense of the larger political balance would put BCCI to shame!

The template of India's new deal with Bangladesh had three broad elements:
1. A comprehensive border settlement agreement that dileneates the border and formalises it, finally.
2. A regional transit agreement giving India access to its North East via Bangladesh.
3. A new template of sharing of river waters.

While the promise of the first was kept good, the second became a casualty to Mamata's capers on the third.

The Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh has invested a great deal in the new deal with India. Not just in clamping down on the myriad North EAstern rebel groups operating out of Bangladesh, but also in terms of shifting the entire narrative of the relationship from a typical South Asian "India nasty big brother" syndrome to one of shared economic destinies, taking advantage of India's booming economy. In some ways reflecting the reality of new aspirations that is sweeping many parts of the muslim world, the Hasina government has made economic progress as the key cornerstone of the policy direction, and relationship with India is but a natural corollary.

In such a scenario, Mamata Bannerjee's spanner in the works acts as a huge setback to both Hasina as well as India's cause. It rekindles the old fears of arrogant indifference of India to the radical constituencies in Bangladesh. And prevents the big idea of regional cooperative structures to move ahead for India. Land transit through Bangladesh and access to Chittagong port for trade onwards with East Asia can change the economic destiny of India's North East. Strategically, it affords India a huge insurance against the narrow "chicken's neck" access through Siliguri today.

But for now, the template is stranded on the runway. For many years, India's Sri Lanka policy was hostage to Tamil Nadu regional politics. As a result, China and even Pakistan managed to get significant toe-holds in Sri Lanka, helping it materially in the fight against LTTE. One only wishes that India's Bangladesh policy does not fall at the altar of another mecurial regional heavyweight.

Maybe the PM needs to do more than using Shiv Menon as emissary. Pranab Mukherjee with some Dhakai sarees probably stand a better chance!