There is an interesting article by Swaminathan Aiyar in TOI today, arguing that nation states will be increasingly acquiring nuclear weapons, citing Ukraine's travails post giving up their own nukes. While Swami Aiyar is often flippant in his analysis, and geostrategy isnt his forte in any case, there is some merit in the argument.
First things first, Russia under Putin and China in the last 6-7 years are putting paid to Tom Friedman's Dell theory of conflict preservation. That is to say, in case that theory had strong legs to stand on in the irst place. Being part of every conceivable European supply chain network hasnt prevented Russia from muscularly intervening in South Ossetia and now Ukraine. Ditto for Taiwan and Vietnam being at the receiving end of China's glowers, despite extensive common economic linkages. In Asia, countries would surely take lessons from the experience of Pakistan and North Korea - nuclear weapons have allowed them to get away with murder and more vis a vis not just vastly superior neighbours, but also the world's only superpower!
Second, the emerging world order is giving rise to new insecurities and potential conflicts. The prime driver of this is America's withdrawal from the middle east. Today, American supercarriers on the Gulf of Hormuz keep Iran at bay from rest of the Arab world, also preserving Saudi hegemony. Shale oil discoveries and the resultant loss of American interest in Saudi Arabia means that Saudis will be tempted to reignite their quest for nukes. It shouldnt be forgotten that the Pakistani nukes were available to Saudis for sale in the past. A Saudi quest will be matched by equal measure with overt Iranian response.
Third, in Asia an assertive China will force East Asia to relook at their options, especially as they fear the impact of an American withdrawal. None of the East Asian states are close to nuclear weapons in any way, though South Korea maybe a little more than a screw driver away.
Last, the possibilities of limited conflicts, of the sort we are seeing in Ukraine, and the sort that India has often feared with Pakistan (since Kargil), opens up newer possibilities. Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) might come back into mainstream strategy, as Pakistan has already done. And as India has been seriously thinking about doing.
First things first, Russia under Putin and China in the last 6-7 years are putting paid to Tom Friedman's Dell theory of conflict preservation. That is to say, in case that theory had strong legs to stand on in the irst place. Being part of every conceivable European supply chain network hasnt prevented Russia from muscularly intervening in South Ossetia and now Ukraine. Ditto for Taiwan and Vietnam being at the receiving end of China's glowers, despite extensive common economic linkages. In Asia, countries would surely take lessons from the experience of Pakistan and North Korea - nuclear weapons have allowed them to get away with murder and more vis a vis not just vastly superior neighbours, but also the world's only superpower!
Second, the emerging world order is giving rise to new insecurities and potential conflicts. The prime driver of this is America's withdrawal from the middle east. Today, American supercarriers on the Gulf of Hormuz keep Iran at bay from rest of the Arab world, also preserving Saudi hegemony. Shale oil discoveries and the resultant loss of American interest in Saudi Arabia means that Saudis will be tempted to reignite their quest for nukes. It shouldnt be forgotten that the Pakistani nukes were available to Saudis for sale in the past. A Saudi quest will be matched by equal measure with overt Iranian response.
Third, in Asia an assertive China will force East Asia to relook at their options, especially as they fear the impact of an American withdrawal. None of the East Asian states are close to nuclear weapons in any way, though South Korea maybe a little more than a screw driver away.
Last, the possibilities of limited conflicts, of the sort we are seeing in Ukraine, and the sort that India has often feared with Pakistan (since Kargil), opens up newer possibilities. Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) might come back into mainstream strategy, as Pakistan has already done. And as India has been seriously thinking about doing.
